CLE team total over 4.5

Plotted in implied-probability space rather than raw American odds. American odds jump across the -100/+100 boundary, so a chart drawn directly on them distorts distances; the axis is labelled back in American odds so it still reads like a betting chart.

No single book is treated as the answer. The fair estimate is a weighted blend, and the weights are part of what makes the estimate a model output rather than a quote.

Where the sampled books actually sit. A stale quote frequently looks like the best number on the board, which is exactly why it is marked rather than silently included.

No book led this market in the sample. Every sampled book moved together, which is itself a signal: there is no disagreement to exploit.

1. 17:05Market

   Steady one-way drift with no disagreement between sampled books.

The same market at a different price is a different decision. This is the price at which the demo model's label changes, which is a more useful thing to know than the label at one price.

1. 1

   Market

   Every sampled book agrees inside two cents of price. Agreement this tight usually means the market has already done the work.

2. 2

   Consensus

   The board price is worse than both the sharp consensus and the model fair price. There is nothing to buy here.

3. 3

   Expected value

   The entire EV band sits below zero. This is the ordinary case: most rows on any board are PASS.

4. 4

   State

   Score 41. Labelled PASS. Showing the PASS rows is deliberate — a board that only displays BET rows is a highlight reel.

This is the same sequence described on the methodology page, applied to one row.